President Xi Jinping of China Is All Business in Middle East Visit
President Xi Jinping of China Is All Business in Middle East Visit
BEIJING — When President Xi Jinping
of China traveled to the Middle East this month he dropped in on two
regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, a feat few global leaders could
pull off.
The Saudis had just executed a Shiite cleric, and angry Iranians had stormed the Saudi Embassy
in Tehran in response, a tinderbox moment that Mr. Xi ignored by
sticking to his mission that was all about building business and staying
above the fray.
The
timing of Mr. Xi’s tour, his first visit to the region after three
years of assiduous travel to almost every other corner of the world,
proved to be serendipitous. He had canceled a trip last year because of
the war between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels in Yemen, and his new
date coincided with the lifting of international sanctions against Iran.
The
risk of arriving in the middle of a huge dispute between the Saudis and
Iranians paid off, delivering what Mr. Xi no doubt considered an
important prize as he tries to extend China’s prestige abroad.
He became the first world leader in Iran after the completion of the deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons
that the United States and Russia worked on together with China’s
support. Arriving so soon after the lifting of sanctions provided an
optimum moment for China to set the stage for its future deal making.
China’s
deep economic interests in the Middle East carry little of the
historical overlay of the empire building and alliance shaping of the
European powers. France colonized Syria, the British carved out Saudi
Arabia, the United States meddled in Iran in the 1950s, and Washington
and Tehran became implacable enemies after the Islamic revolution of
1979. China, weak and minding its own affairs at home, was absent at all
those milestones.
That
is not to say China always refrained from taking sides. China was a
major supplier of arms to Tehran during the Iran-Iraq war when the
United States and Europe imposed an arms embargo. That military
relationship is likely to be revived when a more recent arms embargo on
Iran is eased, though that is not likely any time soon.
But
for the moment, China is concentrating on buying and selling in the
Middle East, and playing Riyadh and Tehran off each other for better oil
deals, leaving the strenuous diplomacy to the United States.
China
is wary of the Islamic State, but is not hugely motivated to enter the
Syrian conflict. “The Middle East is the graveyard of great powers,”
said Li Shaoxian, a former vice-president at the China Institutes of
Contemporary International Relations, a government research institute.
“China doesn’t really care who takes the presidency in Syria in the
future — as long as that person could stabilize and develop the country,
we would agree.”
Mr.
Xi began his trip in Saudi Arabia, China’s biggest oil supplier, which
is looking to recoup its diminished oil sales to the United States with
increased supplies to China, an objective that may be hard to achieve
given China’s economic slowdown. With King Salman, Mr. Xi visited the
Yasref oil refinery, China’s largest investment project in Saudi Arabia,
a joint effort between Sinopec, the Chinese state-owned energy giant,
and Saudi Aramco.
In
Cairo, Mr. Xi met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the military
strongman whose rule signifies the definitive end of the Arab Spring
uprising that the Chinese government was so afraid might infect its own
people. There he splashed around $1 billion in financing for Egypt’s
central bank and a $700 million loan to the state-owned National Bank of
Egypt.
At
the Arab League, a traditional platform for American leaders, Mr. Xi
promised to be different from the other big powers. China would not seek
proxies or spheres of influence in the Middle East, he said in a speech
filled with loans of eye-popping sizes to Arab countries.
Iran
was the most intriguing stop. Mr. Xi’s arrival was preceded with a
glowing article in the Iranian press about the legendary Silk Road that
flourished during the Tang dynasty. And he extended an invitation to
Iran to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security
group.
Under
the sanctions regime imposed on Iranian oil by the United States, China
was “pretty good” in terms of compliance, said Edward Chow, a senior
fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington. Now China wants to be first in line for consideration as
Iran’s oil and gas sector opens up, he said.
Iran, however, wants to balance new investments between the West and Asia, and during a visit to Europe last week, a spending spree by President Hassan Rouhani included huge purchases from Total, Peugeot Citroën and Airbus.
Access
to Iran’s market may not be automatic for another reason. Iranian
businessmen have grumbled that the Chinese muscled out domestic industry
during the sanctions, and flooded the country with cheap goods.
In
the longer term, the Chinese could do well in military sales, said
Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The
roots of the economic relationship between China and Iran are in fact in
the military arena,” Ms. Maloney said.
The
Chinese-manufactured J-10 fighter jet has long been seen as a likely
weapon for Iran, a possibility that Israel has objected to. But China
cannot sell the J-10 without a green light from Washington until 2020,
and the likelihood of China flouting the arms embargo “was highly
improbable at best,” Ms. Maloney said.
The
Israelis should not worry, said Yin Gang, a research analyst at the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences who has written books on China’s
relationships with the Middle East.
Iran
is sure to purchase fighter jets from Europe, Russia or China, and “it
would pose the smallest threat to Israel and Arabic countries if they
buy the Chinese jet, which is inferior in performance,” he said.
There
was little risk, Mr. Yin added, that China would become actively
involved in the fight against the Islamic State. China might provide
some economic help on the antiterrorism front but a military
contribution was out of the question. “We simply have no such military
might,” he said. “How could China send soldiers there? It would be like
sending new corpses.”